TAIPEI (TVBS News) — China's recent actions have attracted global attention, particularly considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan. Amid China's shifting political landscape, Columbia University professor Andrew Nathan shared his insights during an interview conducted with Wenchi Yu of TVBS Meeting Room.
Nathan, an expert on China, initially believed the country was moving towards a more liberal direction. However, he expressed surprise at Chinese President Xi Jinping's apparent shift towards conservatism and an inward-looking approach. According to Nathan, Xi has established a new model that deviates from the previous trajectory.
With the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan approaching, Nathan speculated on the stance of the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, Hou Yu-ih. He predicted that Hou would adhere to the core policies articulated by various KMT officials, emphasizing a desire for lower tension with mainland China without pursuing unification.
Turning his attention to the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te, Nathan expressed curiosity about Lai's position on China, given President Tsai Ing-wen's stance. Nathan noted that the Beijing government would not welcome a DPP victory but did not believe it would trigger a crisis.
Having extensively studied China and Taiwan, Nathan highlighted China's long-term strategy regarding Taiwan, suggesting that an immediate invasion is unlikely. He argued that Xi perceives a secular decline in American power and a corresponding increase in Chinese power over an extended period. Consequently, Xi may attack when the United States is less likely to respond militarily.
Nathan further emphasized that Xi views the political balance within Taiwan as unsettled and believes that the Chinese military is not yet prepared to ensure victory in a potential conflict. This perspective is informed by the recent Russia-Ukraine war, which Xi likely observed closely.