TAIPEI (TVBS News) — As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, a new poll released Wednesday (Dec. 20) by ETtoday shows a tight race with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Lai-Hsiao ticket (Lai Ching-te, Hsiao Bi-khim) receiving 35.9% support, slightly leading the Kuomintang (KMT) Hou-Jaw ticket (Hou Yu-ih, Jaw Shaw-kong) at 34.7%, while the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) Ko-Wu (Ko Wen-je, Cynthia Wu) ticket trails with 19.6%.
Despite the close percentages, 44.3% of the public feels confident in the Lai-Hsiao ticket's ability to win the election, compared to 30.1% for Hou-Jaw and 13.8% for Ko-Wu.
On the opposite spectrum, 40.5% of voters are certain they will not cast their ballot for Lai-Hsiao, with 27.3% rejecting Hou-Jaw and 20.6% turning away from Ko-Wu.
In the legislative battle, the KMT is ahead with 35% for non-constituency legislators, followed by the DPP with 31.3% and the TPP at 14.5%.
The poll reflects heightened public concern over Taiwan's economic ties with China as recent trade restrictions by the mainland have been viewed as trade barriers, prompting increased attention to the suspension of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) measures.
Furthermore, ETtoday's poll indicates 47.1% of those surveyed worry that a Lai Ching-te presidency could worsen cross-strait economic and people-to-people exchanges, with 16.4% feeling the same about Hou Yu-ih and 11.6% about Ko Wen-je.
The poll, conducted from Dec. 18 to 19 by ETtoday, sampled 1,224 respondents aged 20 and above through text messages, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8%.
Compared to the previous poll from Dec. 14 to 15, support for the Lai-Hsiao ticket has dropped by 2.6 percentage points, while the Hou-Jaw ticket saw a minor decline of 0.4 percentage points, and the Ko-Wu ticket remained unchanged.
Undecided voters increased to 9.8%, highlighting the undecided nature of the electorate ahead of the upcoming presidential vote.