TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Following the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) victory in Taiwan's presidential election, Beijing might escalate its activities in gray zone areas, according to a report by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI).
Released on Jan. 13 following Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections, the report indicated that the increased geo-political prominence of Taiwan and its pivotal role in semiconductor manufacturing has made the stability of the Taiwan Strait a key concern for the U.S. and other western nations.
The report, penned by Simona Grano, a senior researcher of Taiwan affairs at ASPI's Center for China Analysis (CCA), indicates that incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te won the election by over 40% of votes. This breaks the "curse" of switching ruling parties every eight years since Taiwan implemented direct presidential elections in 1996.
The victorious DPP aims to continue strengthening Taiwan's defenses and relations with like-minded nations while resisting negotiations with Beijing, the paper explained, adding that the party may also seek to lessen Taiwan's trade dependency on China, bolstering tighter relations with significant partners such as Australia, Europe, and Japan.
With none of the parties securing a majority in the legislative assembly, the DPP is confronted with a "minority government and majority opposition" scenario. This lack of majority could hinder the new government's legislative and budgeting process and impact Taiwan-U.S. ties.
While all presidential candidates called for the maintenance of the status quo with China, it's unlikely the election will fundamentally alter cross-strait relations or regional tensions.
Amid intensified U.S.-China competition, Taiwan faces challenging geopolitics. Still, due to its vital position in semiconductor manufacturing and geopolitics, its importance will continue to rise, ensuring a crucial role for the U.S. and Western nations in maintaining Taiwan Strait stability.
The U.S. presidential election in November will significantly impact the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle. A potential return of former President Trump to the White House might please Beijing, the report concluded.