TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Only 26% of U.S. experts and 17% of Taiwanese experts agree that China has the military capability to carry out a “joint island landing operation” within the next five years, according to a survey released Monday (Jan. 22).
The study, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), surveyed 52 U.S. experts and 35 Taiwanese experts.
Most agreed that China lacks the ability to effectively implement a joint maritime, land, and air invasion of Taiwan, a complex operation that would require a significant deployment of military forces.
However, 90% of U.S. experts and 62% of Taiwanese experts believe it's likely that China could isolate or blockade Taiwan in the next five years, primarily as a commercial, not military, action.
This course of action would not involve China's military but would be conducted by China's Coast Guard or other law enforcement vessels.
Moreover, 80% of U.S. experts and 60% of Taiwanese experts believe that China could implement an action to blockade Taiwan, a maneuver that includes both commercial and military activities and would be led by China's military.
In terms of perceived threats from mainland China, Taiwanese experts generally had a more conservative viewpoint on China's execution abilities for any given option compared to their American counterparts.