TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A crisis in the Taiwan Strait similar to the large-scale military exercises held by China near Taiwan in 1995-96 was likely to occur in 2024, according to a survey released on Tuesday (Jan. 23) by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The Washington-based think tank surveyed from Nov. 28 to Dec. 15 in 2023, before Taiwan's elections, and surveyed potential dynamics between the two straits post-election.
The study found that about 67% of American and 57% of Taiwanese scholars foresee such a crisis. However, the majority of experts maintain that China cannot currently execute a successful invasion of Taiwan.
These experts, however, believe that China could potentially pursue actions of isolation or blockade against Taiwan within the next five years.
Regarding the definition of a "Taiwan Strait crisis," the survey characterized it as "a situation similar to the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995 and 1996 — a significant escalation of tensions between the two sides of the strait, accompanied by at least one major People's Liberation Army exercise intended to intimidate Taiwan and reaffirm China's threats of use of force against Taiwan."
These views may be due to several factors, including China's reaction to Taiwan's election results, the negative assessment of overall U.S.-China relations, and widespread belief among these experts that the November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco "did not stabilize relations such that it significantly reduced the potential of a Taiwan Strait crisis," as the Voice of America reported.