Experts warn of potential Taiwan Strait crisis in 2024: CSIS

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Amid the changing geopolitical landscape, experts have raised concerns about the potential for a Taiwan Strait crisis in 2024, citing the new government and the U.S. presidential election as key variables.

Strategic Stance and Military Capabilities

Ou Si-fu, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, highlighted the evolving military dynamics. "In 1996, there were only missile test launches and large-scale exercises. Now, Beijing can use long-range rocket launch tests, have PLA aircraft and ships circle around Taiwan, cross the median line, or conduct exercises with aircraft carriers in the eastern waters of Taiwan or the Philippine Sea," he stated.

This observation came as the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) China Power Project surveyed 52 U.S. and 35 Taiwan leading experts, in partnership with Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), showing a significant majority of surveyed experts foreseeing a potential Taiwan Strait crisis in 2024.

The experts also believe the recent U.S.-China efforts to mitigate tensions were inadequate, with most predicting a joint blockade by mainland China as the most likely approach to achieving reunification within the next five years.

Political Dynamics and International Relations
Lin Ying-yu, assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University, emphasized the delicate nature of cross-strait relations. "For the CCP, one of its highest principles is to limit war or conflict across the Taiwan Strait to an issue between the two sides and not let it become international," he stated.

He also noted the significant impact of U.S. leadership on the situation, saying, "Whether Trump is likely to return to the White House or the Democratic Party's Biden will continue to be elected, the new president's views on cross-strait relations and the interaction between the United States and China will be truly relevant and determine the subsequent situation in the Taiwan Strait."

The experts' insights underscore the complex interplay of military strength, political leadership, and international diplomacy shaping the future of the Taiwan Strait.