TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Concerns are mounting over potential military tensions as Ma Ying-jeou Foundation Director Hsiao Hsu-tsen (蕭旭岑) warned Tuesday (Oct. 8) that President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) might provoke China with his upcoming National Day speech. Hsiao described this as a deliberate strategy by Lai's administration to incite military drills, which he called a "trap."
Hsiao cited former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge A. Colby's criticism, stating Taiwan has failed to bolster its deterrence capabilities while persistently "poking the Chinese Communist Party in the eye," referencing Lai's inaugural address. Hsiao questioned whether Lai would repeat this "eye-poking" tactic in his speech Thursday (Oct. 10), potentially provoking Chinese military exercises and fueling domestic anti-China sentiment.
Expressing hope that his prediction would not materialize, Hsiao stressed that such actions could jeopardize the safety of 23 million Taiwanese. He urged Lai to prioritize the welfare of Taiwanese citizens and avoid provoking China for ideological reasons. Hsiao emphasized that international media, including The Washington Post and The New York Times, have widely regarded Lai's approach as "provocative."
Also, the International Crisis Group (國際危機組織) reported that tensions have escalated since Lai took office due to his hardline stance toward Beijing. Hsiao called on Lai to reaffirm handling cross-strait affairs according to the Constitution of the Republic of China (憲法) and the "Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area" (兩岸條例), advocating for moderated rhetoric to prevent escalation.
Former American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush advised the Democratic Progressive Party government to prioritize domestic affairs and clarify its stance on not pursuing legal independence for Taiwan. He urged Lai to heed international friends' advice.