TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A recent Global Views Monthly survey (遠見雜誌) paints a complex picture of Taiwanese sentiment toward cross-strait and international relations. Conducted from Nov. 28 to Dec. 6, the "Global Views Monthly 2025 Public Opinion Survey" (遠見雜誌2025民心動向調查) reveals shifts in perception regarding Taiwan's interactions with mainland China (中國大陸) and the United States (美國).
Cross-Strait Relations and Perceptions
The survey reveals that 58.6% of respondents favor increasing exchanges with China, a historic low, while 24.1% support decreasing interactions, the second-highest on record. Regarding impressions of mainland China, 33.1% of Taiwanese hold a favorable view, while 49.7% maintain a negative perception, consistent with past surveys.
In contrast, 43.9% of respondents view the U.S. positively, slightly surpassing the 39.4% with negative impressions. When asked about Taiwan's relationship with China, 26% see the nations as "competitors," and 20% perceive China as a "threat." Among younger Taiwanese, 34.1% view China as a "threat," the highest among age groups.
U.S.-Taiwan Dynamics and Future Expectations
The survey indicates that 48.3% of respondents consider the U.S. a "business partner." However, only 11.8% see the U.S. as "friends and family," with similar proportions labeling it as "acquaintances," "threats," or "competitors." Under Trump's leadership, 36.9% expect U.S.-Taiwan relations to remain the same, while 28% anticipate deterioration, outpacing the 12.1% who foresee improvement.
Regarding U.S.-China relations, 22.8% of respondents believe they will remain unchanged, but 49.4% predict they will worsen. A mere 10.1% expect improvement. These sentiments reflect broader concerns about regional stability and geopolitical tensions.
Cross-Strait Conflict and Defense Perspectives
The prospect of cross-strait war remains a concern for many Taiwanese. When asked if a war could occur between Taiwan and China in the next five years, 66.4% deemed it unlikely, while 22.1% considered it possible, slightly lower than previous surveys. If a conflict arises, 56% of respondents are unwilling to go to the battlefield, while 35.8% express willingness.
Regarding defense contributions, 27.8% of Taiwanese would "donate supplies," 15.2% would "join the military," and 14.7% would "donate money." Those willing to aid in defending the country total 57.7%, while 23.8% prefer evasion, with 15.2% opting to "hide" and 8.6% to "flee abroad."
Implications for Taiwan
The survey highlights complex dynamics in Taiwanese perceptions of cross-strait and international relations. A significant 46.9% anticipate a "negotiated settlement" in the event of a cross-strait war. Only 21.9% believe "China would win," a historic low, while 13.3% foresee "Taiwan would win."
If a cross-strait war erupts, most believe the U.S. would "sell weapons to Taiwan" (31.2%). Other actions like "deploying warships" and "providing defense equipment" each account for around 10%, while "fighting alongside Taiwan" hits a low at 5.8%. On purchasing U.S. weapons, 47.4% prefer maintaining good cross-strait relations to avoid excessive defense spending, while 41.6% support buying more weapons for self-defense.
For More Reading:
Here is the link to the Chinese story on Global Views Monthly: 《遠見》2025民心動向調查：民眾黨認同度降至5.6%，人心流向何方？ | https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/118106
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