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Bloomberg model predicts 63% export drop under tariffs

Reporter TVBS News Staff
Release time:2025/04/10 11:00
Last update time:2025/04/10 11:49
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Taiwan’s central bank urges talks with Trump on tariffs (TVBS News) Bloomberg model predicts 63% export drop under tariffs
Taiwan

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan must pursue dialogue with the White House despite the temporary relief from punitive tariffs, Taiwan's Central Bank (中央銀行) governor warned Thursday (April 10), pointing to President Trump's mercurial policy approach. The U.S. leader's recent 90-day suspension of high tariffs, maintaining a temporary 10% rate while dramatically increasing China's tariffs to 125%, has triggered substantial market rallies in both countries, with Taiwan's benchmark index surging more than 1,600 points.

Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long (楊金龍) delivered his assessment during testimony before the Finance Committee of the Legislative Yuan (立法院財政委員會), Taiwan's parliamentary oversight body, where legislators scrutinized the implications of Trump's reciprocal tariff policies. Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) Legislator Lin Te-fu (林德福), a member of Taiwan's main opposition party, pressed Yang on why Taiwan faced a potential 32% tariff despite its historically strong strategic and economic relationship with Washington.

 

Yang explained that Washington's tariff calculation follows a rigid global formula that fails to account for Taiwan's unique economic relationship with the United States. The central banker emphasized that the formula overlooks Taiwan's substantial contributions to American productivity and economic growth, making a compelling case for bilateral negotiations. The stakes remain high, with Lin referencing a Bloomberg economic model that projects devastating consequences — a potential 63% collapse in Taiwan's exports to America and a 3.8% GDP contraction — should the full 32% tariff eventually take effect.

Taiwan's monetary authority has conducted its own analysis, with a Central Bank report estimating that reciprocal tariffs could shave between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points from Taiwan's economic growth in 2025. These projections remain tentative, as diplomatic efforts intensify across multiple fronts. Yang noted that numerous major economies have initiated negotiations with Washington during the 90-day window, potentially mitigating the global economic fallout, though significant uncertainty clouds the outlook.