TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan could face severe economic disruption with potential job losses affecting 125,000 workers if the United States implements tariffs above 30 percent on imported goods, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), the head of Taiwan's cabinet, cautioned on Friday (April 11). The senior government official outlined grim projections showing how elevated trade barriers would create manufacturing overcapacity across the island's export-dependent economy, potentially triggering widespread industrial contraction.
The premier presented specific calculations showing how a 32 percent tariff would devastate Taiwan's agricultural export sectors. According to government analyses, the island's renowned orchid industry would shoulder an additional NT$320 million (approximately US$9.8 million) in export costs. Meanwhile, traditional tea exports would require NT$110 million (US$3.4 million) in additional payments, edamame producers would face NT$108.84 million (US$3.3 million) in new costs, tilapia exports would bear more than NT$460 million (US$14 million), and mahi-mahi fisheries would encounter NT$110 million (US$3.4 million) in extra tariff expenses.
The government has developed three contingency frameworks based on different tariff thresholds. Under a relatively moderate scenario with U.S. tariffs ranging between 10 and 20 percent, Taiwan's economic risks would remain containable, requiring approximately NT$36.1 billion (US$1.1 billion) in government support measures. A more severe scenario with tariffs between 20 and 30 percent would place Taiwan's crucial electronics, steel, and transportation manufacturing sectors under significant strain, necessitating a larger intervention budget of NT$57.6 billion (US$1.76 billion) to stabilize affected industries.
The most alarming projection envisions tariffs surpassing 30 percent, which could slash Taiwan's exports to American markets by more than one-fifth. This worst-case scenario would trigger substantial "order transfer risks" as U.S. buyers seek alternative suppliers, requiring an emergency economic stabilization fund of NT$88 billion (US$2.68 billion). The premier emphasized that a 32 percent tariff rate could contract Taiwan's overall manufacturing output by 5 percent, with particularly severe impacts on the electronics and machinery sectors, where production could decline between 3 and 14 percent. ★