TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA, 中央氣象署), the island's national meteorological agency, issued a cautionary alert on Friday (June 6) as Typhoon Butterfly (蝴蝶) — the first named storm of the 2025 Pacific typhoon season — is expected to form in the coming days. Meteorologists at the agency have outlined a timeline of changing conditions for the island nation of 23 million people: residents can expect relatively stable summer weather patterns with partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon thunderstorms through Monday. However, forecasters project the developing tropical system will begin influencing Taiwan's weather by Wednesday evening, bringing heightened precipitation probability to the northern and eastern coastal regions, areas particularly vulnerable to typhoon impacts.
Weather officials emphasized that significant uncertainty still surrounds the tropical system's eventual trajectory, with the storm's path heavily dependent on the strength and positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system—a critical meteorological factor that often determines whether typhoons strike Taiwan directly or veer away toward Japan or mainland China. The immediate forecast shows that a weather front has already moved eastward away from the island, leaving behind increased cloud coverage across central and northern Taiwan and the northeastern coastline. Residents in southern coastal communities and the outlying Penghu archipelago (澎湖), a county consisting of 90 islands and islets in the Taiwan Strait, can expect scattered precipitation, while Taiwan's central mountain range—which reaches elevations over 3,000 meters — faces the prospect of substantial afternoon downpours.
CWA forecaster Yeh Chih-chun (葉致均) provided a detailed meteorological timeline for the coming days, predicting that Taiwan will maintain relatively stable weather patterns from Saturday through Monday with variable cloudiness and localized afternoon thunderstorm activity typical of early summer. The situation will begin to change Tuesday as the tropical system consolidates and tracks northward, bringing intermittent precipitation to Taiwan's eastern regions and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島), the southernmost tip of Taiwan known for its national park and tourist attractions. Yeh warned that a more significant weather deterioration is expected from Wednesday night through Thursday, with substantially increased rainfall across northern and eastern Taiwan, while the western regions will continue to experience the standard pattern of afternoon convective thunderstorms in mountainous areas.
In his technical assessment, Yeh emphasized that two critical meteorological factors will ultimately determine whether Typhoon Butterfly delivers a glancing blow or a direct hit to Taiwan: the storm's internal development characteristics and the dynamic behavior of the Pacific high-pressure system that acts as a steering mechanism for western Pacific typhoons. The forecaster outlined a relatively favorable scenario in which the high-pressure system weakens and migrates eastward, potentially forcing the typhoon to recurve away from Taiwan into the open Pacific. Conversely, a stable or strengthening high-pressure ridge could guide the storm on a more westward track toward Taiwan's vulnerable eastern coast. Given these uncertainties, meteorologists strongly advised all residents to remain attentive to official weather bulletins and emergency notifications in the coming days. ◼