TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan faces a looming educational crisis as university enrollment plummets toward historic lows, threatening the island's semiconductor-dependent economy. The Ministry of Education (教育部) projects first-year university enrollment will crash from 270,000 students in 2015 to just 173,000 by 2028, with further decline to 146,000 by 2040. This demographic collapse mirrors global trends affecting higher education worldwide.
The crisis extends far beyond Taiwan's borders, affecting major economies globally. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education predicts American high school graduates will decline by 13 percent, nearly half a million students, by 2041. South Korea faces similar challenges, with the Korean Educational Development Institute projecting university-eligible seniors will drop by 12,518 over the next decade, from 285,924 in 2024 to 273,406 by 2035.
Declining birthrates drive this educational enrollment crisis across nations. The world's total fertility rate has plummeted from five children per woman in the mid-twentieth century to just 2.2 today. Approximately half of all countries now register fertility rates below 2.1, the replacement threshold generally needed to maintain steady population levels without immigration.
Taiwan's demographic decline poses particular economic risks given the island's dependence on skilled semiconductor manufacturing. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (台灣積體電路製造公司) alone accounts for 8 percent of Taiwan's overall economic output and 12 percent of its exports. Shrinking birth rates and university enrollment threaten to reduce the skilled workforce essential for maintaining Taiwan's dominance in chip manufacturing.