TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's leading economic research institute Friday (Oct. 17) raised the island's 2025 growth forecast to 5.45%, driven by sustained artificial intelligence demand and strong export performance. The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) revised its projection upward, surpassing the International Monetary Fund's 3.7% forecast issued this week. The bullish assessment reflects Taiwan's central role in global AI supply chains and semiconductor manufacturing.
The research institute reported 6.75% growth for the first half of 2025, with second-quarter expansion reaching 8.01%. Third-quarter growth is estimated at 5.82%, though fourth-quarter expansion will likely slow to 2.71% due to high baseline comparisons. CIER projects 1.81% inflation for 2025 and expects the New Taiwan dollar to average NT$30.91 (around US$1.00) against the U.S. dollar, representing 3.88% appreciation from 2024.
Economic forecasters initially held pessimistic views this year due to U.S. tariff policies but have repeatedly revised projections upward. CIER noted that while tariffs affect global trade and supply chains, buffer periods and positive negotiation signals have boosted trade activities. Taiwan's exports surged impressively in the first three quarters, with growth rates likely reaching 26.59%, while imports rose on stable manufacturer investment demand.
Robust international AI demand has driven aggressive manufacturer investment, with private investment projected to grow 11.58% in 2025. Private consumption is expected to increase 1.56% for the year, boosted in the second half by stock market wealth effects. CIER forecasts 2.55% economic growth for 2026, maintaining cautious optimism despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. ◼ (At time of reporting, US$1 equals approximately NT$30.676)