TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Taiwan Institute of Economics Research (TIER, 台經院) revised Taiwan's 2025 economic growth forecast to 5.94% in its newest economic outlook on Thursday (Nov. 6), a significant increase from its July prediction of 3.02%. The institute attributes this upward revision to the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) market, which is driving equipment investment and product exports in Taiwan's tech industry.
AI opportunities have become a major growth engine, prompting the institute to predict a 2.60% economic growth rate for 2026. Sun Ming-Te (孫明德), director of TIER's Macroeconomic Forecasting Center (景氣預測中心), expressed a cautious outlook, noting that the AI sector presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks, particularly concerning the potential for an AI bubble.
However, Chien-Yi Chang (張建一), president of the TIER, reassured stakeholders that an AI bubble is unlikely in the short term. He emphasized that continued investment in AI infrastructure could boost Taiwan's exports. Chang also mentioned that surpassing a 6% economic growth rate this year is possible, even though the institute's estimate stands at 5.94%.
Private investment in Taiwan is expected to grow by 10.97% in 2025, fueled by semiconductor companies expanding advanced processes and high-end packaging and testing capacities. The institute also estimates a robust export growth rate of 24.98% for 2025. However, due to a high base effect, the export growth rate is expected to decrease to 3.08% in 2026.