TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (台積電) could surpass Apple in market valuation by 2030, an analyst predicted Monday (Nov. 24). The Motley Fool, a financial and investment advice company, made the projection, citing booming demand for AI data centers and high-performance computing. The forecast has ignited heated debate on PTT (批踢踢實業坊), a major Taiwanese online forum.
Keithen Drury, an analyst at The Motley Fool, wrote that Apple's current market valuation stands at approximately US$4 trillion (around NT$125.2 trillion), while TSMC's reaches around US$1.4 trillion (around NT$43.8 trillion). Rapid growth in AI chip demand is expected to reshape corporate rankings, according to Drury. Apple's revenue growth has slowed as the consumer electronics market becomes saturated, with long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth projected at about 12 percent.
TSMC's EPS is projected to grow by as much as 40 percent annually due to AI chip manufacturing demand, in contrast to Apple's 12 percent rate. Drury said TSMC chips are used in most high-powered computing devices that use AI, and the company is creating new chip technology that could improve energy consumption by up to 30 percent. Applying current price-to-earnings ratios suggests TSMC could reach a market valuation of US$8.3 trillion (around NT$260 trillion) by 2030, surpassing Apple's projected US$7.2 trillion (around NT$225.4 trillion).
Drury stressed that this represents a high-growth scenario and should be viewed as such, noting significant uncertainty in long-term projections. PTT users noted that TSMC has capitalized on the AI generation wave, with companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom heavily relying on its advanced manufacturing processes. If capital expenditure in data centers skyrockets, TSMC's growth momentum could potentially outpace Apple, supporters argue, citing the company's technological leadership.