TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB, 亞洲開發銀行), a multilateral development finance institution, revised Taiwan's GDP growth forecast to 7.3% for 2025, marking a 2.2 percentage point increase Wednesday (Dec. 10). Taiwan's growth rate ranks second only to Vietnam's 7.4% in the Asia-Pacific region. U.S. tariff uncertainties continue to threaten the region's economic prosperity despite strong growth projections.
The ADB's latest 'Asian Development Outlook 2025' attributes Taiwan's upward revisions to the ongoing AI boom and eased U.S.-China trade tensions benefiting exports. The bank expects reduced uncertainties and tech sector benefits to boost consumer confidence and spending, supported by increased government subsidies and defense spending. Taiwan's GDP growth rate for 2026 was revised from 2.3% to 4.0%, marking the highest adjustment among regional economies.
The ADB warns that uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Trump's tariff policies continue to hinder Asia's economic development despite positive growth trends. The bank notes potential tariff tensions could escalate, impacting exports and investments across the region. Significant asset price corrections could exacerbate debt vulnerabilities, leading to capital outflows and a potential debt crisis in affected economies.
The ADB acknowledges that while reduced U.S. tariffs on China eased trade concerns, overall risks remain high, particularly in branded pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The bank sees resilience in emerging Asian economies, citing strong electronics and semiconductor demand and diversified export markets as buffers. High-income tech-exporting countries experienced a 22% year-on-year export increase in Oct., with Taiwan's exports surging 49%, driven by global AI competition. ◼