TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Academia Sinica (中央研究院), Taiwan's premier research institution, revised Taiwan's 2025 economic growth forecast Monday (Dec. 22) to 7.41%, the highest among major domestic forecasting institutions, driven by artificial intelligence advancements. The institute projects 3.71% growth for 2026 as AI-related industries support external demand despite potential U.S. tariff impacts.
The institute projects this year's real export growth at 32.09% and import growth at 29.79%, with 2026 estimates at 8.41% and 8.20% respectively. Global trade will likely remain influenced by U.S. tariff policies in 2026, though AI industry expansion is expected to support Taiwan's external demand and investment. The high base effect may slow growth momentum next year.
Academia Sinica Vice President Peng Hsin-kun (彭信坤) noted this year's economic growth rate is the best in 15 years but cautioned the growth structure is unique. Peng emphasized notable growth in imports and exports while traditional industries remain sluggish. Chang-Ching Lin (林常青), a joint research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics, urged the government to support small and medium enterprises in navigating international compliance practices, addressing industrial polarization.
Lin noted that while AI and emerging technologies have clear development directions, the industry's absorption capacity remains a critical variable. Chun-Hao Yueh (岳俊豪), head of the Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (產科國際所) at the Industrial Technology Research Institute (工研院), Taiwan's applied research agency, pointed out the key lies in turning AI investments into tangible profits. The AI surge has propelled Taiwan's economic growth this year.