TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A failed Chinese invasion of Taiwan could result in approximately 100,000 Chinese military deaths and set China back decades on the global stage, according to a German Marshall Fund report released Monday (Jan. 5). The report warns that countries might respond with punitive measures including expelling Chinese diplomats, severing diplomatic ties, and potentially recognizing Taiwan's independence. The analysis represents one of the most detailed assessments of potential consequences from a cross-strait military conflict to date.
Zack Cooper, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, highlighted that a small-scale military conflict would primarily elicit diplomatic responses with limited impact on China. Cooper noted that a larger conflict would incur severe international costs for China, depending on the "scope, scale, speed, and sustainability" of reactions from other countries. Initial responses could include public condemnation and the expulsion of Chinese consular staff, though these measures might be short-lived, according to the analysis.
The report outlines that China might initiate the conflict with an amphibious assault on Taiwan and attacks on U.S. forces stationed in Japan and Guam. However, logistical challenges could lead to a Chinese surrender under conditions allowing their forces to return home unharmed, according to the scenario analysis. The report projects casualties of 50,000 Taiwanese military personnel and civilians, along with substantial losses for both the United States and Japan.
The analysis suggests the U.S. and allies might recall ambassadors, expel Chinese diplomats, and withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative. Economic impacts could be catastrophic for China, with costs potentially reaching trillions of dollars. A 2023 Rhodium Group study estimated costs between US$2 trillion (around NT$63 trillion) and US$3 trillion (around NT$94.5 trillion), while Bloomberg suggested figures near US$10 trillion (around NT$315 trillion). ◼