TAIPEI (TVBS News) — President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) government knew within months of taking office that his flagship housing promise was impossible. They kept that secret for 18 months — until this week, when Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) finally admitted the 130,000-unit target may drop to as few as 60,000 to 40,000.
Internal Ministry of Interior (內政部) documents, prepared shortly after Lai's May 2024 inauguration, identified only 260 potential sites capable of housing approximately 94,000 units — well below the campaign target. The gap between promise and capacity was never publicly disclosed until Liu's appearance before the Legislative Yuan's (立法院) Internal Affairs Committee on Monday (Jan. 19), where she defended the policy shift by citing land scarcity in desirable urban areas.
"Direct construction or lease-and-management programs are both social housing," Liu said, arguing that government-managed private rentals qualify under the Housing Act (住宅法). For now, the government would pursue a "three-track" approach combining direct construction, rental subsidies, and managed leases — a formula that critics say amounts to a series of temporary fixes.
Opposition Cries Foul, Denounces Vacant Home Mirage
Opposition legislators accused the administration of issuing a check it knew would bounce. Kuomintang (國民黨) legislator Niu Hsu-ting (牛煦庭) said if the policy needed revision, the government should acknowledge "the promise was too big, and it bounced." When pressed on whether the government should have foreseen these obstacles, Liu pivoted to blame former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), noting that "during Mayor Ko's term, there were also problems and challenges in this area" — a deflection that drew criticism from opposition benches. Ko, now former chairman of the Taiwan People's Party (台灣民眾黨), served as Taipei mayor from 2014 to 2022.
The ministry has pointed to Taiwan's roughly 910,000 vacant homes as a potential solution, but housing experts say this argument misses the mark. Vacancy rates in Taipei and New Taipei — where demand is highest — sit at just 7 percent, below the national average of approximately 10 percent. Many of these properties are high-end units whose owners refuse to rent at affordable rates, creating a paradox: luxury apartments for millionaires who don't exist, while 3 million renters compete for scraps.
Chiang Ying-hui (江穎慧), an assistant professor at National Chengchi University's (國立政治大學) Department of Land Economics, told CommonWealth Magazine (天下雜誌) bluntly: "The capital region just needs to build." Approximately 3 million people in Taiwan rely on the rental market, making them the core audience for housing policy. Social housing — government-built rental units with below-market rates reserved for young people, low-income families, and other priority groups — represents the most durable solution for vulnerable populations who face discrimination in the private market.
Social worker Chang Tsi-en (張思恩), who helps disadvantaged renters find housing through the Tsuei Ma Ma Foundation (崔媽媽基金會), said she herself cannot claim rental subsidies because her landlord forbids it. "The power imbalance is too great," she told CommonWealth. "I'm worried that if I insist on the subsidy, the landlord won't rent to me." She still enters the social housing lottery each cycle, hoping for six years of stability. "I just want to know I won't have to move," she said. Her predicament illustrates why advocates argue that subsidies alone cannot replace government-built housing that provides tenants with legal protections.
Former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who initiated the social housing program during her 2016-2024 administration, offered a rare glimpse into the pressure surrounding the policy. "The staff in this department were under a lot of pressure," Tsai said in 2023. "Few policies have a president asking about them several times a month right from the start. They must have found it quite annoying." She added that she would regularly ask officials whether targets could be met, but acknowledged: "In recent years, I stopped asking."
Adding to questions about internal turmoil, the Executive Yuan (行政院), Taiwan's Cabinet, in January abruptly reassigned National Housing Agency (國家住宅及都市更新中心) Director Wu Hsin-hsiu (吳欣修) without explanation — a move CommonWealth Magazine described as "a mystery."
According to CommonWealth Magazine's investigation, ministry assessments suggest the Executive Yuan balked at the financial burden of direct construction. Building one social housing unit costs approximately NT$1.57 million (US$49,700), compared to NT$39,200 (US$1,240) in annual rent subsidies and NT$96,200 (US$3,044) in managed leases. Nearly 40 percent of construction costs — over NT$80 billion (US$2.53 billion) — involves purchasing land from local governments, a policy the previous administration designed to encourage local participation that has now become a financial liability.
Liu said she has met with the mayors of New Taipei and Taoyuan and plans to visit Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) and Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) to coordinate policy. But ministry data reveals the scope of the challenge: the six major municipalities have added only about 16,000 units since 2020 — a pace that makes the original 130,000 target appear not just ambitious but fantastical.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (民進黨) has governed Taiwan continuously since 2016, giving it nine years to address a housing crisis that consistently ranks among voters' top concerns. Taiwan's housing prices have risen faster than incomes for two decades, making affordability a defining political issue — and broken promises particularly costly.
For Taiwan's Renters, Trust May Be the Scarcest Resource
Former President Tsai eventually stopped asking whether targets could be met. Her successor's government shouldn't stop trying to meet them. In the meantime, the question is whether Taiwan's 3 million renters will stop believing the next promise — and whether any government will be honest enough to make only commitments it can keep.
Chang Tsi-en still enters the social housing lottery, hoping for a chance at stability. Her odds just got longer. The government that promised 130,000 new units may deliver fewer than 60,000 or 40,000. The luxury apartments overlooking Taipei will likely stay empty. And the lottery will keep drawing names from a pool that grows faster than the housing supply ever will.
In Taiwan's housing debate, the scarcest resource may not be land. It may be trust. ◼