TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Ten years, two summits, two entirely different political contexts — and almost identical public reaction. New TVBS polling released Friday (April 24) shows Taiwanese support for cross-strait leader meetings has barely moved from 2015 to 2026, dropping just two percentage points despite a decade of military tensions, frozen dialogue and a fundamental shift in who is doing the talking.
The comparison comes as opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) met Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing on April 10 — the first such meeting since then-President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) met Xi in Singapore in 2015, itself the first summit between leaders of Taiwan and China since the Chinese Civil War. The earlier poll used landline-only sampling among 1,006 adults; the 2026 survey employed dual-frame methodology among 1,118 adults, likely capturing younger respondents better.
The continuity masks a significant shift in context. Ma met Xi as Taiwan's sitting president with constitutional authority over cross-strait policy. Cheng met Xi as leader of the opposition party, with no formal government mandate. Yet Taiwanese appear to evaluate such meetings on their potential for peace rather than the participants' official status: belief that talks help peace fell only modestly, from 47 percent to 43 percent.
The most notable change appears in partisan attitudes. In 2015, 64 percent of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨) supporters opposed the Ma-Xi meeting, with only 16 percent in favor. By 2026, DPP supporters are nearly evenly split on resuming government negotiations: 45 percent support and 44 percent oppose. This shift suggests the ruling party's base may have grown more pragmatic about cross-strait engagement after years without official contact.
Among respondents aware of the Cheng-Xi meeting — 78 percent of those surveyed — 46 percent described it as a "great success," while 31 percent called it a "failure." China's Taiwan Affairs Office (國台辦) announced 10 measures to promote exchanges following the summit. Opinion was divided: 34 percent said the measures would benefit Taiwan, 28 percent said they would be harmful, and 36 percent had no opinion.
Attitudes toward the 1992 Consensus — a controversial formula both the KMT and Beijing use as a basis for cross-strait relations, but rejected by the ruling DPP — show growing polarization. Support increased from 42 percent in a previous survey to 46 percent now, but opposition also jumped from 22 percent to 32 percent. The shrinking middle ground suggests Taiwanese are forming firmer views on the framework, even as the headline numbers on dialogue stay flat.
The numbers tell a story of continuity: 41 percent then, 39 percent now. But the meaning has shifted. A decade ago, Taiwanese were judging whether their president should meet China's leader. Today, they are judging whether anyone but their government should speak for them. The appetite for dialogue endures — the tolerance for freelance diplomacy does not. ◼