TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A research report released this week by France's Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking company indicated that regardless of who wins the election, Taiwan is poised for economic growth.
The research pointed out that the upcoming Taiwan presidential election is one of the most significant geopolitical events of 2024 and that the consumer and tech industry rebounds could spur economic growth from 1.2% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024.
According to Natixis, while candidates share similar social and labor policies, the major differences lie within industrial and energy areas, as well as their positions on Taiwan's economic relationship with China.
In addition to candidates from the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je could play a pivotal role, potentially triggering legislative instability, according to Natixis.
The bank points out that the incumbent DPP, leading in polls, will continue to push for diversified trade and investment policies, shifting from China toward the U.S. and other Asian regions.
However, these targets might be challenging to achieve as Taiwan missed out on regional trade/economic agreements such as RCEP, CPTTP, and the U.S.-led IPEF.
Should the KMT win the election, they might seek closer trade and investment links with China by expanding the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), Natixis conjectures.