TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes for two consecutive years, not only has Taiwan’s foreign exchange market depreciated accordingly, but also the overall Asian currency market.
As Fed officials are expected to lower interest rates three times this year, experts suggest that it could potentially revive the consumer market and boost Taiwan's exports.
"It is widely expected that the Fed will push back its rate cuts timeline to June," said Darson Chiu, a researcher from the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER). "But I am not that optimistic, since I believe prices in May will remain above the target set by the Fed.”
The U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the annual inflation rate rose by 3.1%, increasing by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose 3.9% from a year ago, causing the Fed to delay rate cuts.
In 2023, the Taiwanese dollar depreciated by 3.16% against the US dollar, and its movement in 2024 will depend on when the Fed decides to lower interest rates. Other indicators to consider include the ongoing US employment rate and economic data, suggesting a potential gradual appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar in the future.
Chiu commented, "I believe the export performance for the first three quarters of this year will be quite good, as last year's base period was comparatively low.”
"Last year's sluggish global trade was mainly due to weak terminal demand. However, this year’s trade volume may have a significant increase compared to last year," he added.
The Fed is predicted to keep its current interest rate in the 5.25 to 5.5% range after the March 19 to 20 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.