TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Following the passage of the new national security law known as Article 23 in Hong Kong on March 19, Professor Li Cheng of The University of Hong Kong has offered his analysis on the relationships between Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China. According to Li, the possibility of a war breaking out across the Taiwan Strait is unlikely.
Li believes that Hong Kong's historical context played a role in the passage of the law. Despite many experts suggesting that the national security law and the impact of fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market indicate that Hong Kong's advantages are diminishing, Li emphasized that Hong Kong's uniqueness remains irreplaceable. With the support of the Greater Bay Area, not only the financial sector but also the innovative industries have great potential for development.
Li also disagreed with the notion that China intends to use military force against Taiwan, reiterating his belief that the chance of a cross-strait war is lower than a U.S. civil war.
Li suggested that economic and political divisions in the U.S. play a significant role in misunderstandings between the U.S. and China. He pointed out that as the world faces structural changes, Western countries should not continually divide the world into democratic and autocratic nations based on ideology. At the same time, China should also undergo a change in mindset.
Li stressed that neither the U.S. nor China can decouple from each other or the world. Therefore, finding cooperative methods, moving away from zero-sum games, and avoiding tense relationships on the brink of conflict could create win-win situations.