WASHINGTON (TVBS News) — As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, experts at a roundtable discussion organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Sept. 26 suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, might adjust her Taiwan policy if elected.
In the ABC News poll released that day, Harris held a 2.7% lead maintaining momentum with President Joe Biden's endorsement.
Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, noted that the One China policy has become unstable since Chinese President Xi Jinping began his third term last year, defying norms.
Anticipating shifts in the White House's approach to Taiwan if Harris is elected, he stated, "We have a One China policy here, which has done well, but is wobbly because of lots of new dynamics that are putting pressure on it."
"I think this is an area ripe for change, change induced by events on the ground that are going to make us have to think differently about how we maintain peace and stability," he added.
Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project, expressed uncertainty if Harris would make the same public statements about America’s willingness to defend Taiwan as Biden has.
"I think what Taiwan, our Taiwan friends, will be looking for is if she is willing to make, I guess, the same sorts of public statements that President Biden has made in terms of willingness to defend Taiwan publicly," she said.
In June, Biden told Time magazine he wouldn't rule out using U.S. military force to protect Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. Lin believes his open support is vital to Taiwan's view of its relationship with Washington.
"I know each time the White House and National Security Staff have walked them back, but those statements still are, whether intentional or not is still quite important in terms of how Taiwan views US Taiwan policy," Lin added.
She further warned that Beijing might test the next U.S. president during the transition period before the 2025 inauguration, and emphasized the importance of direct communication with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德).