TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Donald Trump clinched victory in the U.S. presidential election on Wednesday (Nov. 6), prompting experts to scrutinize the potential impact of his unpredictable style on cross-strait relations. Scholars are questioning whether Trump will again defy Beijing's pressure by dispatching officials to Taiwan, as he did during his previous term.
Huang Kwei-bo (黃奎博), a professor at National Chengchi University's Department of Diplomacy, emphasized the significance of identifying which U.S. officials will implement frontline policies and whether Trump's personal influence will shape U.S.-Taiwan relations. Huang noted that while Trump's current stance toward Taiwan appears negative, appointing Taiwan-friendly officials could maintain operational stability.
Huang also highlighted Trump's preference for bilateral negotiations and his transactional nature, which could shape U.S.-China-Taiwan dynamics. During his campaign, Trump asserted control over international issues, including the Taiwan Strait, expressing his willingness to directly contact Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) if necessary.
Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源), a researcher at Tamkang University's Center for Advanced Technology, suggested that China might apply military, trade, and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan due to its extensive research on Trump. Li Zhenguang (李振廣), a professor at Beijing Union University, noted that the bipartisan consensus in the U.S. to use Taiwan as a counterbalance to China remains unchanged.
He pointed out that economic issues plaguing the U.S. could potentially limit support for Taiwan independence. Post-election, Chen Yih-fan (陳奕帆), an assistant professor at Tamkang University's Department of Diplomacy and International Relations, advised Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) administration to establish effective communication with Trump to sustain friendly U.S.-Taiwan relations.