Expert warns of U.S.-China semiconductor trade tensions

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Chris Miller, the author of "Chip War," expressed concerns regarding the consequences of a trade war targeting semiconductors between the U.S. and China at a forum held by the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET) on Tuesday (March 25). Professor Miller of Tufts University suggested that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. will not likely crack down on China due to the complexity of the current semiconductor supply chain and the U.S. relations with its allies.

Miller pointed out that U.S. policymakers, concerned about China's semiconductor capabilities, have focused on semiconductors. The U.S. administration aims to restrict expertise transfer to China, impacting research and development access. He noted that China's efforts to build its indigenous supply chain are robust, highlighting the resources China has dedicated to this endeavor over the past decade.

Speaking about the development of the trade war, Miller mentioned that President Trump has doubled the average tariff rate on China, marking a significant shift in the national supply chain structure. This development, occurring in the first two months of his second term, affects global trade dynamics as tariffs extend to other countries. Miller emphasized that the move underscores the ongoing technology competition between the U.S. and China, with export controls on advanced semiconductors and manufacturing regulations in place.

Moreover, Miller stated tariffs imposed by the U.S. over China on chip imports would make the issue even more complicated since the complexity of supply chains makes such tariffs administratively challenging. He took an example of the "Air Force Labor Protection Act," which bans products tied to Xinjiang, posing compliance challenges for companies like Volkswagen. This act reflects broader efforts to limit Chinese components, though its effectiveness hinges on building a coalition.

Miller added that the U.S. represents only 20% of the world economy, and a coalition with the G7 is crucial for global success. However, collaboration with Europe remains difficult amid intense U.S.-Europe relations, which China seeks to exploit. He concluded that future developments will likely hinge on coalition-building and strategic alliance, and require further observation of the high level of uncertainty, ranging from the industrial landscape in China and its economic policy.