TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan faces significant economic challenges from U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policies, according to the president of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院), Taiwan's leading economic think tank. Trump's April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs targeting more than 180 countries has raised concerns across Taiwan's export-dependent economy. The U.S. administration has already declared an initial 10% tariff that will apply during a 90-day suspension period beginning April 9.
CIER President Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) on Monday (April 28) warned that Taiwan could face tariffs between 15% and 20%, higher than the baseline 10% rate Trump has established. During his analysis, Lien pointed to Trump's historical pattern of imposing substantial trade barriers, including his frequent use of 25% as a benchmark figure when escalating tariffs. The economist referenced existing precedents where Trump has targeted the European Union with 20% tariffs and Israel with 17% rates as indicators of what Taiwan might expect.
Taiwan should urgently negotiate exemptions for its critical technology sector, Lien advised, noting that information and communications technology products constitute approximately 70% of Taiwan's exports to the United States. The economist emphasized that the intricate nature of global electronic supply chains makes rapid reshoring to American soil impractical. These complex manufacturing networks, developed over decades, cannot be easily dismantled or relocated without significant disruption to product availability and pricing.
Diplomatic engagement rather than confrontation should be Taiwan's primary strategy, according to Lien, who advocated for a flexible approach to U.S.-Taiwan trade discussions. The economist recommended that Taiwanese officials remain adaptable, adjusting their negotiating positions based on preliminary outcomes from these crucial talks. Taiwan faces a critical period in the coming months as it attempts to protect its export-driven economy from potentially damaging tariff increases while maintaining its vital economic relationship with the United States. ★