TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's security officials have warned China may launch a military drill targeting Taiwan as early as Saturday (Dec. 13), amid escalating tensions between Beijing and Tokyo that threaten regional stability. The potential "Strait Thunder-2025B" (海峽雷霆-2025B) exercise comes as multiple Chinese naval operations unfold across the East and South China Seas. Security analysts say Beijing would use Taiwan as a pretext to pressure Japan and demonstrate how China's navy could block Japanese military responses.
Earlier this week, Chinese fighter jets locked weapon-targeting radars onto Japanese aircraft near Okinawa — the most serious incident between Chinese and Japanese forces in years. The threatening move signals a potential attack and forces targeted planes to take evasive action. Japan and the United States responded Wednesday with a joint flight drill over the Sea of Japan, deploying two U.S. B-52 strategic bombers and six Japanese F-35 and F-15 fighter jets.
Japan's Joint Staff said the bilateral exercise reaffirms the "strong will" between Japan and U.S. not to tolerate unilateral changes to the status quo by force. Beijing insists it announced its maneuvers ahead of time. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun (郭嘉昆) told reporters: "No need for the Japanese side to be so nervous and dramatic."
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) called China's ongoing drills "very inappropriate behavior" during remarks to reporters on Wednesday. "We also call upon China to demonstrate the responsibility befitting a major power," Lai said. "Peace is priceless; war has no winners. Peace must be fostered by all parties, and China shares this responsibility."
China has massed naval assets from the southern Yellow Sea through the East China Sea into the South China Sea since mid-November. The number of vessels exceeded 100 at one point — the highest ever recorded in the region, according to security officials. The potential Saturday drill would coincide with China's National Memorial Day for the Nanjing Massacre, though Beijing does not routinely hold military exercises to mark the occasion.
President Donald Trump's planned April 2026 visit to Beijing for trade talks could create an opening for mediation. The U.S. State Department broke its silence on the dispute this week, saying "China's actions are not conducive to regional peace and stability." The department affirmed "the U.S.-Japan Alliance is stronger and more united than ever."
Taiwan's National Security Bureau (國家安全局) Director Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) says intelligence agencies operate under the assumption that any scenario remains possible. He calls November and December a "hot period" for Chinese military exercises. Regional stability hangs in the balance as tensions reshape East Asian security dynamics. ◼