TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's opposition parties face a collision course in New Taipei: the only candidate who can win the mayoral race may not be the one who wants it most. A new poll released Tuesday (Jan. 20) shows Taipei Deputy Mayor Lee Szu-chuan (李四川) defeating the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP, 民進黨) nominee by 15 points — while Taiwan People's Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), who has already declared his candidacy, would lose by 6.
Only One Winner in a Blue-White Alliance
If the alliance instead backs Huang, Su would lead 39% to 33%. New Taipei City Deputy Mayor Liu Ho-jan (劉和然), another potential KMT candidate, fared even worse: Su would lead Liu 38% to 29%. The survey did not test scenarios where candidates run independently without opposition cooperation.
Su disputed the findings Tuesday afternoon, saying her internal polling shows the gap in single digits, though she did not provide specific figures or methodology. The survey arrives as Taiwan's opposition parties weigh whether to cooperate in year-end elections for New Taipei, the island's most populous city with nearly 4 million residents. The DPP has confirmed Su as its candidate, while the KMT has not finalized its nominee.
When voters chose among all three potential opposition candidates, Lee dominated with 44% support. Huang received 18%, Liu just 7%, and 32% expressed no opinion. The survey revealed a generational divide: voters aged 20 to 29 favored Su over Lee 41% to 34%, but voters 30 and older supported Lee across all age brackets, with his strongest showing among those 50 to 59, where he led 56% to 29%.
Independent voters could prove decisive. Among this group, 37% backed Lee and 20% supported Su, but 43% remained undecided with months until the election. The telephone poll surveyed 997 New Taipei residents aged 20 and above between Jan. 6 and Jan. 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. TVBS funded the survey.
The TPP's Demographic Dilemma
These numbers highlight a significant challenge for the TPP as it shifts from national to local politics. During the January 2024 presidential election, party founder Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) captured 26.5% of the vote and secured eight legislative seats, buoyed by young voters frustrated with economic conditions. Huang, a former legislator who became party chairman after Ko's legal troubles last year, now faces a different electoral landscape — one where youth-focused messaging may collide with rapidly aging demographics.
New Taipei crossed a demographic milestone in December when residents aged 65 and older surpassed 800,000, representing approximately 20% of the city's total population. The city has officially entered what demographers classify as a "super-aged society." Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) announced that the city exceeded its target of 120 senior daycare centers ahead of schedule and pledged to expand to 130 by year's end.
Government statistics paint a stark picture of this transformation. The median age in New Taipei reached 44.81 years in 2023, meaning half the population is approaching 45 or older. Officials project that roughly four in ten working-age residents will be between 45 and 64 years old, signaling an aging labor force that will reshape the city's economic and social priorities.
This demographic reality poses a strategic dilemma for the TPP. The party built its national profile by channeling youth anger over housing costs, wage stagnation, and inflation. Ko cultivated 1.2 million Instagram followers and maintained a strong TikTok presence, posting videos featuring supporters struggling to pay rent and find work. But in New Taipei, this approach confronts an electorate where the TPP's core demographic is shrinking while older age brackets continue to grow.
The party's electoral appeal also suffered damage in May 2024 when tens of thousands of protesters, many of them students, demonstrated outside Taiwan's legislature against reform bills the TPP supported alongside the KMT. The protests echoed the 2014 Sunflower Movement that first propelled Ko to prominence. Analysts noted that youth support for the TPP appeared contingent on the party's ability to voice economic frustrations rather than reflecting deep loyalty to its leadership.
The numbers present Huang with an uncomfortable choice: pivot toward elder care and risk losing the young voters who powered the TPP's rise, or stay the course and watch Lee claim the opposition's best chance at New Taipei. Neither path guarantees success. Both reveal a party caught between the movement it built and the electorate it needs. ◼