TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The candidate the ruling party in Taiwan most wants to challenge Taipei's popular mayor has spent a decade saying no. Now the calculus may have changed: Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君) just played a key role in negotiating reduced U.S. tariffs to 15 percent, and pressure is mounting within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨) to draft her ahead of Sunday's nomination talks.
A TVBS Poll Center survey released Thursday (Jan. 29) shows Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) commanding 62 percent support against Cheng's 25 percent, a 37-point gap. The poll of 1,009 Taipei residents, conducted Jan. 23-28, found Chiang's approval rating at 63 percent — the highest of his nearly three-year tenure. The gap has remained virtually unchanged despite Cheng's high-profile success in tariff negotiations.
Both Parties See Cheng as DPP's Strongest Option
Senior figures in both major parties say Cheng remains the DPP's strongest option for November's election. Taipei City Council speaker and Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) city chairman Dai Hsi-chin (戴錫欽) warned Wednesday his party must be "on high alert" if Cheng enters the race. "If the DPP wants to play it safe, they'll nominate Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰)," Dai told local media. "But if they want to fight for this seat and persuade Cheng to run, we must be on high alert."
Cheng's potential candidacy draws comparisons with former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who served as a trade negotiator during Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization before entering politics. Like Tsai, Cheng built her reputation through policy work, serving as culture minister before becoming vice premier. She declined invitations to run for Taipei mayor in 2018 and 2022, expressing a preference for policy research.
Cheng has given little indication she is ready to follow Tsai's path. When asked Jan. 20 about running for mayor, she offered a cryptic response. "This is an old question," she told reporters, noting she has answered it for over 10 years. "My past answers still count. I'm someone who does what I say and says what I do."
DPP sources say President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), who also serves as party chairman, may need to personally persuade Cheng to run. The party's Central Election Strategy Committee will discuss Taipei nominations when it meets Sunday, though a final decision could take weeks. Lai's personal intervention would signal the party's determination to field its strongest candidate against Chiang.
Dai estimated Cheng could capture 40 to 45 percent of the vote, citing her "relatively low animosity" among voters. He noted she has never been embroiled in political controversies or recall campaigns. Dai argued her appeal to swing voters and ability to force Chiang to focus on defending Taipei could benefit the DPP's broader electoral strategy.
The TVBS poll found Chiang gaining ground across nearly all voter demographics. Support among voters aged 20-29 surged 23 percentage points to 54 percent compared with December — a significant warning sign for the ruling party. Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 台灣民眾黨) supporters now back Chiang at 82 percent, while independents favor him over Legislator Wang Shih-chien (王世堅), the DPP's other leading option, 51 percent to 29 percent.
Wang, a veteran legislator known for his grassroots appeal, faces significant challenges in the matchup against Chiang. The poll showed Wang trailing 60 percent to 27 percent, with the gap widening to 33 percentage points from 28 in December. While Wang commands loyalty among DPP supporters at 63 percent, he has struggled to expand beyond the party's base, a critical weakness in a city where the pan-blue coalition holds an advantage.
Independent voters, who favor Chiang over Wang by 22 points, represent the constituency the DPP must win to be competitive. Former legislator Kao Chia-yu (高嘉瑜), who once worked under Cheng at a think tank, praised her former boss as someone whose credentials match or exceed Chiang's. But Kao noted Cheng's biggest weakness remains her lack of campaign experience—the same quality that has kept her out of races for a decade.
The question now is whether Cheng's credentials can overcome her aversion to campaigning. When she told reporters Jan. 20 that her past answers "still count," she left the door neither fully open nor fully closed. On Sunday, the DPP's election committee will begin deliberations that may require President Lai himself to make the ask she has long resisted. ◼