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Analysts warn Taiwan could upend Trump’s landmark China trip

Reporter Dimitri Bruyas / TVBS World Taiwan
Release time:2026/05/14 15:39
Last update time:2026/05/14 18:33
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TAIPEI (TVBS News) — President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing on Thursday (May 14), with trade, Iran and artificial intelligence topping the official agenda — but Taiwan emerged as the summit's most unpredictable flashpoint. Former U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns warned on X that Taiwan is the "wild card" of the talks, urging Trump to maintain 50 years of American policy by continuing arms sales and not weakening Taiwan's government.

The two leaders held approximately one hour of bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People following a welcome ceremony, with a visit to the Temple of Heaven (天壇) and a state banquet scheduled for later in the day. The White House described the meeting as a "landmark summit," though officials told The New York Times that no joint communiqué may be issued by week's end.

 

Trump signaled before his departure that he would discuss U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with Xi — a statement that broke a 40-year norm under which Washington did not consult Beijing before such sales. The comment alarmed observers in Taipei, where analysts said it effectively violated the informal "Six Assurances" the U.S. made to Taiwan in 1982.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨) said the United States had reassured the government, both publicly and privately, that American policy toward Taiwan remained unchanged. But the party's national security team remained anxious about Trump's unpredictability, according to local media reports.

 
The opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) struck a different tone. Party Chairwoman Cheng Li-wen (鄭麗文) told Japan's Yomiuri Television that if Trump reaffirms the "one China" policy and opposes Taiwan independence, "that is completely in line with the KMT's position."

Cheng added in a separate interview with Britain's Sky News that Trump's primary concern is American national interests. "I do not want Taiwan to become a bargaining chip in great-power competition — that is why I went to Beijing first," she said, referring to her recent visit to China.

Analysts warned that even subtle shifts in American wording could carry significant consequences. Patricia Kim, a U.S.-China expert at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent analysis that a change from "not supporting" Taiwan independence to "opposing" it would "shape expectations and influence how Beijing calculates risk."

Kim warned that if Washington appears willing to trade a partner's security interests with Beijing, "It would also shake confidence not just in Taipei but across America’s entire network of allies." The implications would extend far beyond Taiwan, she added.
 

Not all observers shared the concern. Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chair at the Hudson Institute, told Japan's Asahi Shimbun that criticism of Trump's commitment to Taiwan's defense was "groundless." Trump would be "extremely cautious" on Taiwan because failure would severely damage U.S. global leadership and his own presidential authority, Weinstein said.

Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, writing for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, called Taiwan a "model ally, not trade bait." Trading Taiwan's security for "hollow promises" from Beijing would be "an unprecedented strategic blunder" that U.S. allies from Tokyo to Warsaw would remember for generations, he wrote.

China's Ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng (謝鋒), said in an interview before Trump's departure that Taiwan is "the biggest obstacle" in U.S.-China relations. He called on Washington to take concrete action on the one-China principle and the three U.S.-China joint communiqués to "open more space for developing bilateral relations."

Both sides have signaled they seek stability rather than breakthroughs from this summit. But with Taiwan on the agenda, even small shifts in language could carry significant consequences for cross-strait relations and the broader U.S. alliance system in Asia. The next Trump-Xi meeting is expected later this year, analysts said. ◼