TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Moderate Typhoon Dolphin (白海豚) is tracking toward Taiwan and is forecast to bring heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous coastal conditions over the Father's Day weekend. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration warned Monday (Aug. 3) that outer rain bands could reach the island as early as Friday.
As of 8 a.m. Monday, the typhoon's center was located at 24.3 degrees north latitude and 148.4 degrees east longitude, moving west-northwest at 25 km/h (15.5 mph), according to the weather agency. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 43 meters per second (155 km/h or 96 mph), with gusts reaching 53 meters per second.
The typhoon carries a gale-force wind radius of 320 km (199 miles). Taiwan could experience significant weather impacts even if the center does not make direct landfall.
Dangerous long-period ocean swells are expected to begin reaching Taiwan's coastlines on Tuesday, affecting the northern coast near Keelung, the eastern coastline including Lanyu (蘭嶼) and Green Island (綠島), and the Hengchun Peninsula.
The typhoon's outer rain bands are expected to reach Taiwan by Friday, bringing scattered showers to northern Taiwan. The most significant impacts are expected Saturday and Sunday, when heavy rain or torrential rain is possible in northern mountain areas.
Winds are forecast to strengthen by Friday and Saturday, reaching Beaufort scale 5 to 7 (29 to 61 km/h or 18 to 38 mph), with gusts of Beaufort 8 to 9 or higher. Northern waters could see sustained winds of Beaufort 10 to 11 by the weekend.
Private forecaster WeatherRisk (天氣風險) assessed that the probability of the typhoon's center directly striking Taiwan is "relatively low." However, forecast models show significant divergence on when and where the typhoon will turn north after passing near Okinawa.
Meteorologist Wu Der-rong (吳德榮) of the Meteorological Application and Development Foundation wrote that European forecast model simulations show typhoon paths "twisted like a braided rope" after five days. European ensemble data shows approximately 50% probability of gale-force winds affecting the southern East China Sea, 40% for Taiwan's northern waters and 20% for northern Taiwan's land areas.
Taiwan also faces extreme heat before the typhoon arrives, with an orange-level heat alert in effect for Taipei, New Taipei and Taoyuan warning of temperatures reaching 36°C (96.8°F) or higher. Officials advised staying hydrated and watching for signs of heat-related illness.
The Central Weather Administration noted that forecast uncertainty remains high for the typhoon's path after it passes near Okinawa, Japan. It was not immediately clear whether the agency would issue formal typhoon warnings for Taiwan.
Father's Day in Taiwan falls on Aug. 8, based on the phonetic similarity between "88" (八八, bābā) and "papa" (爸爸, bàba). ◼