TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Who are President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) toughest critics? A new poll suggests the answer lies not with opposition party loyalists, whose disapproval is predictable, but with two groups whose skepticism could prove more consequential: independent voters and Taiwanese in their 50s.
The survey, conducted by the TVBS Poll Center from Monday (Aug. 31) to Wednesday (Sept. 2), found that among voters who identify as politically independent, 44 percent disapprove of President Lai's performance — nearly double the 23 percent who approve. Another 33 percent offered no opinion, suggesting a constituency that leans negative but remains persuadable.
Here is how the demographic and partisan breakdowns reveal fault lines that could shape Taiwan's political landscape heading into the 2028 election cycle.
The generational divide revealed in the poll is stark. Voters aged 50 to 59 stand out as the only age cohort where a majority (51 percent) disapproves of President Lai, with just 34 percent expressing satisfaction. This demographic, which typically records high voter turnout, represents a warning sign for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨).
Young voters, meanwhile, remain something of an enigma. Among those aged 20 to 29, a plurality (41 percent) offered no opinion, the highest non-response rate of any age group.
Partisan loyalists, by contrast, behave exactly as expected. Nearly nine in 10 DPP supporters (89 percent) approve of President Lai's performance. Among supporters of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 民眾黨), roughly 80 percent disapprove.
The topline numbers show President Lai with 39 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval, a one-percentage-point gap that falls within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points. Compared with a TVBS poll conducted in May 2026, disapproval dropped from 45 percent to 38 percent, but the share of respondents offering no opinion rose from 17 percent to 22 percent, suggesting that the decline flowed primarily into the undecided column rather than converting to approval.
The poll was conducted after prosecutors indicted 15 people and four companies in connection with the Central Union Oil Corp. (中聯油脂) tainted cooking oil scandal, which affected more than 13,000 businesses across Taiwan.
Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) faces a similar pattern with 37 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval. Among independent voters, 39 percent disapprove compared with 25 percent who approve. The 50-59 age cohort is even more critical of the premier than of the president, with 53 percent expressing disapproval, the highest of any age group.
The poll did not ask respondents to attribute their approval or disapproval to specific issues. Whether the tainted oil scandal, budget disputes with the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, or other factors are driving sentiment remains unclear. ◼