TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Central Weather Administration (CWA, 中央氣象署) reported that a front would affect and gradually pass through Taiwan on Wednesday (Sept. 25), bringing scattered showers or thunderstorms to northern, central, eastern regions, and offshore islands. The eastern region may experience heavy rainfall, with a higher likelihood of significant rain along the northern coast of Keelung.
Southern Taiwan will see partly cloudy to clear skies, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. National Taiwan University (台灣大學) atmospheric science Ph.D. Lin Te-en (林得恩) noted that models from the United States, Europe, and Canada indicate a high probability of a tropical disturbance developing off the northeastern coast of the Philippines, potentially approaching Taiwan by next Tuesday.
Lin explained that various global models, including the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), consistently signal the formation of a tropical disturbance near the northeastern coast of the Philippines around Saturday, with a high likelihood of it turning into a typhoon and moving toward Taiwan.
The CWA pointed out that from Thursday to Saturday, the front will shift to the eastern coast, placing Taiwan in a low-pressure zone with abundant moisture and northeasterly winds. Northern and eastern regions will see scattered showers, while central and southern areas will have partly cloudy to clear skies with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
On Thursday and Friday, heavy rain is likely along the northern coast of Keelung and eastern regions. By Saturday afternoon, southern areas from Chiayi southward may also experience significant rainfall. Sunday will bring reduced moisture, though northern and eastern regions will still see isolated showers. Other areas will remain mostly sunny with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Rainfall is expected to increase again next Monday and Tuesday, particularly in the eastern regions and Hengchun Peninsula, with scattered showers or thunderstorms likely in the north and partly cloudy to clear skies elsewhere.