TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台經院) on Friday (Jan. 24) revised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.42%, marking the most optimistic outlook among domestic think tanks. According to their report, this adjustment stems from growth in consumption, investment, and exports.
Sun Ming-te (孫明德), director of TIER's Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, highlighted the diversification of Taiwan's economic stability, which no longer relies on a single factor but benefits from positive investment, private consumption, and net foreign demand.
Sun noted that extending investment momentum from AI-related front-end semiconductors to downstream assembly could further boost economic growth, impacting industries like machinery and electronic components. TIER predicts a 6.05% export growth rate for 2025, revised up by 1.37 percentage points due to robust AI demand, despite traditional industries facing pressure from China's overproduction and price-cutting competition.
On the domestic front, emerging technology demand has prompted leading chip manufacturers to increase capital expenditure, attracting international investment. TIER forecasts a 5.66% growth rate in private investment for 2025. However, it slightly downgraded the private consumption growth rate to 2.11% due to a high base period and slowing momentum.