TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台經院) on Friday (Jan. 24) revised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.42%, marking the most optimistic outlook among domestic think tanks. According to their report, this adjustment stems from growth in consumption, investment, and exports.
Sun Ming-te (孫明德), director of TIER's Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, highlighted the diversification of Taiwan's economic stability, which no longer relies on a single factor but benefits from positive investment, private consumption, and net foreign demand.
Sun noted that extending investment momentum from AI-related front-end semiconductors to downstream assembly could further boost economic growth, impacting industries like machinery and electronic components. TIER predicts a 6.05% export growth rate for 2025, revised up by 1.37 percentage points due to robust AI demand, despite traditional industries facing pressure from China's overproduction and price-cutting competition.
On the domestic front, emerging technology demand has prompted leading chip manufacturers to increase capital expenditure, attracting international investment. TIER forecasts a 5.66% growth rate in private investment for 2025. However, it slightly downgraded the private consumption growth rate to 2.11% due to a high base period and slowing momentum.
TIER also projects a 1.95% rise in the consumer price index, up by 0.08 percentage points, with inflation pressures persisting. TIER president Chang Chien-yi (張建一) expressed concerns over potential impacts on private consumption momentum if government subsidies are affected by budget cuts. Sun warned of global economic challenges in 2025, including U.S. President Trump's new policies, central banks' monetary strategies, and China's economic stimulus measures.