TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The New Taiwan dollar has surged over 10% since April, reaching levels similar to four years ago, according to Sun Ming-te (孫明德), director of the Macroeconomic Forecasting Center at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院). The institute held an economic forecast press conference on Friday (July 25), projecting an annual economic growth rate of 3.02%, revised up by 0.11 percentage points from April's forecast.
Sun emphasized that negotiations with the U.S. significantly influence exchange rate trends. He noted that countries that negotiate successfully with the U.S. have more room for currency appreciation, saying Japan's currency has appreciated significantly following early negotiations with the U.S. The TIER analyzed that since April, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies has weakened financial market confidence in dollar assets, prompting exporters to convert dollar assets into the New Taiwan dollar, driving its rapid appreciation.
The institute expected the New Taiwan dollar's exchange rate fluctuations to narrow in the second half of the year, predicting an average rate of 30.65 New Taiwan dollars to 1 U.S. dollar for 2025, appreciating by 1.55 New Taiwan dollars from the previous forecast. Wu Meng-tao (吳孟道), director of the Research Division VI, stated that the release of Taiwan's tariffs has eased market pressure, which should reduce the appreciation pressure on the New Taiwan dollar, forecasting less fluctuation in the second half of the year compared to the first half.