TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's ruling party nominated a candidate known for energizing young progressives in the upcoming Taipei mayoral election. But in the first major poll since, incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) leads his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨) challenger by 28 points — including among voters aged 20 to 29.
The TVBS poll, conducted from May 21 to May 26, found Chiang with 58% support compared to 30% for DPP legislator Shen Pao-yang (沈伯洋, Puma Shen). The gap is especially striking among younger voters, where Chiang leads 60% to 37% — a 23-point margin that defies the DPP's traditional strength with younger Taiwanese.
Among voters with no party affiliation, Chiang draws 57% support compared to just 14% for Shen. The incumbent is also winning over voters who backed third-party candidate Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) of the Taiwan People's Party in 2022: 61% of that group now supports Chiang, while 32% back Shen.
Why Shen faces an uphill battle
Shen faces an additional challenge: more Taipei residents say they dislike him than like him. His favorability stands at 31% positive and 38% negative, with 28% saying they "strongly dislike" him. Chiang's favorability is 57% positive and 22% negative.
President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) personally presented the campaign flag to Shen at the DPP's nomination ceremony earlier this month. Shen, a legislator and academic known for his research on disinformation, faces Chiang, who defeated the DPP's Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) in 2022 and is seeking his second term as mayor of Taiwan's capital.
Chiang's approval rating stands at 59% satisfied and 27% dissatisfied — a 4-point decline from January that followed a rat infestation crisis resulting in a hantavirus death earlier this year. Some 41% of residents approve of his handling of the issue, while 36% disapprove.
The two candidates have already clashed over policy. Shen has criticized Chiang for allegedly delaying construction of a substation needed to power the Beitou-Shilin Technology Park (北士科), where Nvidia is building its new Taiwan headquarters. Chiang has countered that the issue stems from national energy policy, not city administration.
The DPP's candidate selection process may have contributed to Shen's deficit. A TVBS poll in December 2025 tested five potential candidates against Chiang. Shen drew the lowest support among them at 22%, while legislator Wang Shih-chien (王世堅) performed best at 31%. More significantly, Wang led Chiang among voters aged 20 to 29 by 17 points — a stark contrast to Shen's current 23-point deficit in the same demographic.
The party deliberated for six months before nominating Shen earlier this month. During that period, Chiang's overall lead against Shen narrowed from 42 points to 28 points — suggesting the nomination itself provided some boost. But among young voters, the DPP's position collapsed: from a 17-point advantage with Wang to a 23-point deficit with Shen, a 40-point swing.
The TVBS poll surveyed 901 Taipei residents aged 20 and older using landline telephone sampling, a methodology that may underrepresent younger voters who rely primarily on mobile phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Undecided voters ranged from 13% overall to 29% among independents.
The Taipei mayoral election is scheduled for November. Shen has five months to answer a question the poll leaves open: why young voters who typically favor his party are, so far, choosing the incumbent. The challenge may be partly of the DPP's own making — the party took six months to decide, then nominated a candidate who had polled at just 22% — near the bottom among the five options tested. ◼