TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan braces for its first typhoon of the 2025 season as meteorologist Lin De-en (林得恩) warned Friday (Jun 6) that Typhoon Butterfly (蝴蝶) could soon approach the island, bringing substantial rainfall. Lin cited recent simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model showing the Pacific high-pressure ridge extending westward after June 10, creating conditions for a monsoon trough that typically precedes severe weather systems in the region.
According to Lin, these monsoon troughs typically create ideal conditions for tropical disturbances or typhoons to develop, making the formation of this year's first major storm highly probable in early June. Weather analysis from the European ensemble numerical model has identified tropical disturbance 92W off the Philippines' eastern coast as particularly concerning. The system shows strong potential for intensification into a typhoon, fueled by exceptionally warm sea temperatures ranging from 30 to 32 degrees Celsius (86 to 89.6°F) and favorable atmospheric conditions with minimal vertical wind shear.
The potential storm's trajectory remains uncertain but concerning, with Lin revealing that Typhoon Butterfly could track dangerously close to Taiwan's vulnerable eastern coastal regions or potentially make a direct approach toward the island itself. These path variations will largely depend on fluctuations in the Pacific high-pressure system in the coming days. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA, 中央氣象署), the island's official meteorological agency, has acknowledged the likelihood of tropical disturbance development spanning from the Philippines' eastern waters to the South China Sea throughout the weekend and into next week. Officials emphasized they are maintaining heightened surveillance of the system's evolution. ◼