TAIPEI (TVBS News) — China has unilaterally shifted the M503 flight path closer to the Taiwan Strait median line and activated the eastbound W122 and W123 paths, starting on Thursday (Feb. 1). This move, coinciding with the election of President Lai Ching-te and his impending inauguration in May, is generating heightened pressure on Taiwan's international standing and is viewed by experts as a potential warning from China.
Hsin Ping-lung, a researcher from the Center for Advanced Technology at Tamkang University, told TVBS, "China believes that as long as it's operating under the '92 Consensus' framework, it can selectively terminate previous agreements. I think it aims to make the airspace and waters around Taiwan part of its sovereign territory by manipulating such agreements."
China's decision to cancel the 2015 agreement with Taiwan, which had moved the M503 flight path 11 kilometers to the west of its original route, could potentially reduce Taiwan's air defense warning time. Despite criticisms from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense and other units, China is legally establishing routes within its Flight Information Region (IFR).
"Since China is an International Civil Aviation Organization member, it has to declare new flight routes," said Yu Hao-wei, a former Air Force officer. "Hence, the route it sets up is not just open for its flights; in fact, one may consider it to be arbitrary, but it is not illegal."
Former F-16 pilot trainer Huang Yang-te noted, "The MND has recently updated the way it tracks potential hostile aircraft, using the boundaries of ICAO's designated IFRs. This new demarcation line is very close to the centerline, which I think is quite pragmatic."
Experts believe that the speculation about Chinese military aircraft using civilian air routes for covert operations is not highly probable and would be less efficient. However, the situation poses challenges for the Taiwanese military's intelligence and surveillance efforts, increasing the burden on response time.
The underlying issue remains a complex matter of sovereignty, experts concluded.