Why Yale scholars say Taiwan holds leverage it barely uses

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — When Donald Trump threatened tariffs, most nations scrambled to appease him. Taiwan tried something different: it stayed calm, negotiated quietly, and cut the rate in half. Two Yale scholars say that restraint reveals a deeper truth: Taiwan holds leverage it has barely begun to use.

In an exclusive interview with TVBS News, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management, and Steven Tian, the institute's senior research director, offered Taiwan a roadmap based on their new book, "Trump's Ten Commandments." "Taiwan is sitting on a very strong hand," Tian said. "It has a lot of things that the United States and President Trump need and want."

Tian pointed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which he described as a US$2 trillion company at the center of the global chip supply chain. Sonnenfeld added that 80 percent of American chips are manufactured in Taiwan — a figure that, if accurate, would give Taipei extraordinary bargaining power.

But leverage alone isn't enough. The scholars drew lessons from how other nations have handled Trump. When he threatened Greenland with U.S. troops and Denmark with economic sanctions earlier this year, European nations and Canada formed a unified front that forced him to retreat. "Collective action beats a bully," Sonnenfeld said.

Sonnenfeld, who has known Trump since 1992, described the president's negotiation style as deliberately brutal — opening with extreme demands to disorient opponents before actual bargaining begins. Taiwan's calm response proved effective. When Trump announced sweeping tariffs on "Liberation Day," Taiwan negotiated the rate down to 15 percent, less than half the original figure.

"If there's one thing that President Trump hates more than losing money, it's losing pride," Sonnenfeld said. "He never felt insulted by Taiwan." He contrasted this with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's public confrontations with Trump — justified in his outrage, Sonnenfeld said, but ultimately ineffective.

The scholars warned that Trump uses foreign crises — Greenland, Venezuela, Iran — to distract from domestic problems, a tactic they call "the wall of sound." Understanding these patterns is essential, Tian said. "Whether you like President Trump, whether you hate President Trump, whether you want to just run and hide from him — that's not a choice. You need to understand how he works."

The Taiwanese government has said little about its negotiation strategy. But the scholars' core argument may already be proving itself: Taiwan's calm response to last year's "Liberation Day" tariffs succeeded where confrontation failed. As Trump's second term unfolds, the question is not whether Taiwan has leverage — it's whether Taipei will recognize it before the next crisis forces its hand. ◼ (At time of reporting, US$1 equals approximately NT$31.94)

▶ The Chinese-language version of "Trump's Ten Commandments" will be released by TVBS in fall 2026.