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Young Taipei voters flip to Puma Shen in dramatic shift: TVBS poll

Reporter Dimitri Bruyas
Release time：2026/10/08 22:14
Last update time：2026/10/08 22:14

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Taipei mayoral race tightens as young voters flip to DPP challenger Puma Shen, left. Former TPP supporters shift allegiance, narrowing incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an's lead to just 8 points. (Courtesy of Puma Shen, Chiang Wan-an/Facebook)
Taipei mayoral race tightens as young voters flip to DPP challenger Puma Shen, left. Former TPP supporters shift allegiance, narrowing incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an's lead to just 8 points. (Courtesy of Puma Shen, Chiang Wan-an/Facebook)

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Ten months ago, Puma Shen (沈伯洋) polled last among five candidates the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民進黨) considered for Taipei mayor. Now he leads incumbent Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) among young voters by 8 points — a 31-point swing since May, according to a TVBS poll released Thursday (Oct. 8).

The reversal vindicates a nomination once questioned. In December 2025, Shen drew just 22% support against Chiang, the lowest of any candidate tested. His October numbers now exceed what any of them achieved.

Here is what else the numbers reveal about how young Taipei voters shifted, and why the movement extends beyond a single demographic.

Overall, Chiang of the Kuomintang (KMT, 國民黨) leads Shen 49% to 41%, narrowing from 28 points in late May to 8 points now. The shift extends beyond youth: voters aged 40-49 now split nearly evenly at 47% to 45%, while only those aged 30-39 and 60-69 remain firmly in Chiang's column with leads of roughly 20 points.

A key driver: voters who backed Taiwan People's Party (TPP, 民眾黨) candidate Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) in 2022. In May, 61% of former Huang voters supported Chiang, with 32% backing Shen. By October, those numbers flipped: 53% now support Shen, 39% support Chiang, the poll found.

The shift coincides with Shen launching "Taipei Great Ocean Current" (台北大洋流) on Sept. 30, a six-district campaign tour through Nov. 17. Chiang faced criticism over a school lunch incident in late September, when students at six Taipei schools reported feeling ill. The city announced Wednesday that food samples met safety standards, but 39% of residents said the city handled it poorly.

Yet even among young Shen supporters, 58% believe Chiang will win, a gap between support and expectations that persists across demographics. Overall, 55% expect Chiang to prevail versus 20% for Shen. Taipei voters cast ballots Saturday, Nov. 28; the poll projects 71% turnout, with 11% of likely voters undecided.

The DPP has not won Taipei since 1994. Shen's surge offers the party its most competitive position in years — a remarkable turn for a candidate who, ten months ago, polled last among five options the party considered. Whether that gamble pays off depends on whether young voters who tell pollsters they support Shen actually show up to vote, and whether landline surveys, which TVBS acknowledges "may underrepresent younger voters who rely primarily on mobile phones," have captured the full picture. ◼

▶ The poll surveyed 1,120 residents with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.