TAIPEI (TVBS News) — When Chinese rockets splashed into waters north of Taiwan on Tuesday (Dec. 30), international observers saw another military exercise. What they missed: Beijing had deployed a weapons system that matches ballistic missile accuracy at one-tenth the cost, fundamentally changing the economics of cross-strait conflict. The PCH-191 rocket artillery system, capable of firing with 15-meter precision from China's coast, represents what defense analysts call a "game-changer" — not because it's more powerful than existing weapons, but because it's affordable enough to be used in volume.
The advanced system sent rockets approximately 24 nautical miles (44 kilometers) north of Taiwan in the fourth major military encirclement since President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) took office in May 2024. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (國防部) condemned the drills as "militaristic" behavior, which it deemed destabilizing to the Indo-Pacific region. Officials emphasized Taiwan would not escalate tensions in response, while mobilizing F-16 fighters and naval vessels to monitor the exercise. The live-fire drills represent China's most direct demonstration of rocket artillery capabilities targeting the Taiwan Strait since 2022.
The military exercise that prompted Taiwan's restrained response represents a significant shift in the cross-strait military balance. Defense analysts note that the PCH-191 enables precision strikes within 15 meters (49 feet) using China's BeiDou (北斗) satellite navigation system, its indigenous alternative to GPS. The system is described as China's answer to the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which gained prominence for its effectiveness in Ukraine's defense against Russia.
Taiwan's defense assessments indicate that the system matches short-range ballistic missile accuracy at an affordable cost — a development that Western analysts see as a major improvment in the economics of precision warfare. At one-tenth the cost of ballistic missiles, the PCH-191 could enable China to sustain high-intensity operations economically, a capability military planners refer to as "affordable coercion," which can be maintained indefinitely.
The Chinese exercises formed part of China's broader "Justice Mission 2025" (正義使命-2025) operation, announced Monday morning (Dec. 29) with only one day's notice — forcing airlines to scramble to reroute flights and Taiwan's military to heightened alert. Beijing's Eastern Theater Command (東部戰區) allegedly violated international aviation regulations, which require a seven-day advance warning, according to Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration. The drills deployed 130 aircraft, 14 warships, and eight coast guard vessels around Taiwan between Monday at 6 a.m. and Tuesday at 6 a.m. The accelerating pace — four encirclements in less than two years compared to sporadic exercises in previous years — suggests Beijing is normalizing military pressure as a permanent feature of cross-strait relations.
Taiwan's defense ministry released video footage showing F-16 fighters using infrared targeting pods to track Chinese J-16 aircraft, emphasizing military readiness. Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), head of Taiwan's Executive Yuan (行政院), accused Beijing of deliberately creating societal divisions, stating to the media that "any attempt to endorse the 1992 Consensus or 'one country, two systems' principle will only bring shame upon itself." The 1992 Consensus is a controversial framework that suggests both sides acknowledge "one China" while disagreeing on its interpretation.
Beijing justified the show of force by citing recent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan exceeding US$11 billion (around NT$344 billion), with China's Foreign Ministry warning that "arming Taiwan" would backfire. The drills disrupted 941 flights, affecting over 100,000 passengers, with all services to Kinmen (金門) and Matsu (馬祖) — Taiwanese-controlled islands just miles from China's coast — cancelled during the exercise period.
President Lai urged citizens on Tuesday to remain united against disinformation amid Beijing's military pressure, emphasizing Taiwan would maintain a "responsible attitude" without escalating tensions. His message of calm found an unlikely validator: Taiwan's stock market, which remained stable despite the live-fire drills. Taipei-based financial analysts attributed the resilience to investor belief that Beijing's encirclements, now routine, represent theater rather than prelude to invasion. Whether that confidence reflects strategic calculation or dangerous complacency may determine how the international community responds to the next encirclement — and whether there will be a fifth. ◼